2.5 Population statistics and decision-making

With just a few exceptions, the Finnish population has grown each year since the beginning of records. This has mainly been due to the much higher birth rate compared with mortality. Birth rate has been so strong that even the occasional surges of emigration have not been able to reverse the trend of population growth. But we are now approaching a situation where mortality is beginning to exceed fertility. This is inevitable because the number of ageing individuals is increasing at the same time as the numbers of people in childbearing age are continuing to dwindle.

Surveys to monitor the country's population structure lend important support to public decision-making. Population statistics provide crucial information for decision-makers on future trends in such areas as education and retirement.

The numbers of comprehensive school pupils in the country and the need for training places, for example, are primarily influenced by fluctuations in birth rate. Public services must also be adapted according to the number of senior citizens. From 2010, the number of persons aged 65 is set to increase sharply in Finland as the postwar babyboom generation (who were born in 1946-1950) reaches retirement age. Today, the oldest population groups number nearly 900,000; by 2030, the figure will have risen to 1.5 million, or 26% of the population.

Predictions of future population trends are based on population forecasts. The purpose of a population forecast is not to achieve maximum accuracy with respect to true population trends, but rather to show what will follow if current trends in birth rate, mortality and migration continue. The course of this development can be steered and influenced by various policy measures, but the changes achieved by these measures are inevitably slow. Therefore, population forecasts project the situation up to 30 years ahead from the present.